Hormuz escalation: what does it mean for WTI?
Recent tensions around the Strait of Hormuz are pushing risk premiums higher. We analyse the futures curve and geopolitical scenarios.
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Frequently asked questions
What is the Strait of Hormuz?
The Strait of Hormuz is a sea passage between Iran and Oman, just 34 kilometres wide at its narrowest point. It is the world's most important maritime oil chokepoint: roughly 20 million barrels of crude pass through daily, about 20% of global seaborne oil trade.
What percentage of global oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz?
Around 20% of global seaborne oil trade and a similar share of global LNG passes through the Strait of Hormuz. In 2024, 84% of crude oil via the strait was destined for Asian markets, with China receiving a third of its oil through this route.
What happens to oil prices if the Strait of Hormuz is closed?
During the blockade that began in late February 2026, Brent rose above $100 per barrel for the first time in four years, peaking at $126. Dubai crude reached a record $166. It is the largest disruption to global energy supply since the oil crises of the 1970s.
How does the Hormuz crisis affect my petrol price?
Higher oil prices feed directly into pump prices. During the crisis, fuel prices across Europe rose to multi-year highs. A closure lasting several months can keep prices elevated long after the strait reopens.
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