Interactive tool
Editor-curated Strait of Hormuz risk level, live market context and an educational scenario simulator. Not a trading signal, but insight into oil price sensitivity.
Updated when market conditions warrant.
Last assessed:
Lowered from 92 to 88. Kpler figures published on 30 September put crude transit at a seven-day average of 13.5 million barrels per day, equal to the pre-war crude baseline; products remained far behind at 677,000 barrels per day versus 3.6 million before the war. AIS undercounts that dark and transferred flow. Over the weekend, UKMTO reported two tanker incidents near Oman and in the Strait; the Houthis claimed an attack on Aramco, while Saudi Arabia and Aramco did not confirm the cause. OPEC+ kept November targets equal to September's required production. Brent closed at $102.25. No normalization, but no collapse in crude flows either.
On 30 September, Kpler put crude transit at a seven-day average of 13.5 million barrels per day, equal to the pre-war crude baseline, while products were at 677,000 barrels per day versus 3.6 million before the war. AIS undercounts the dark traffic and cargo transfers. The PortWatch count of three transits on 23 August is outdated as a baseline. Crude has recovered since 8 September; products and safe traffic have not. Risk remains severe.
Weight: 30%. Severe
UKMTO reported on Saturday that a crude tanker was hit by an unknown projectile four nautical miles east of Oman, and on Sunday that a second tanker suffered engine-room damage in the Strait. Two incidents in one weekend reprice the fleet's war-risk premium. A September mine report remains unconfirmed and must not be treated as fact. Risk remains severe.
Weight: 25%. Severe
The reopening proposal was rejected at the end of September. Iran reiterates that the Strait will remain closed until the seven conditions of the Islamabad memorandum are met, and an additional US aircraft carrier was already on its way before the weekend. Risk remains severe.
Weight: 25%. Severe
The East-West Pipeline was tested this month after earlier fire on the Red Sea system; volumes there remain limited. The G7 pledged 100 million barrels over four months, including an early, substantial diesel release in the first twenty days. That is smaller than the 507 million barrels of observed inventory lost since February, including 95 million in August alone. Risk remains severe.
Weight: 20%. Severe
Model a disruption and see an estimated Brent price range based on live market data.
Saudi East-West Petroline + UAE ADCOP (~2.6 Mb/d combined offset)
Estimated Brent range
A substantial price increase is plausible: inventories draw down quickly and markets price in a prolonged disruption.
The model assumes ~20 Mb/d of crude and products via Hormuz (~20% of global liquids consumption, source: EIA) against a global consumption baseline of ~103 Mb/d (IEA).
Effective supply loss = blockage severity × 20 Mb/d − pipeline offset (max 2.6 Mb/d if active) − SPR dampening (0 / 1 / 2 Mb/d).
Price impact via demand elasticity |ε| = 0.20-0.45: %ΔP = (%Δsupply) / |ε|. Longer duration amplifies via inventory drawdown (multiplier 0.4× at 3 days to 1.6× at 90 days). Total effect capped at +150%.
Dollar figures are calculated from the current live Brent spot price. When data is unavailable, only the percentage range is shown.
Factors not modelled: currency effects, competition for alternative routes, OPEC+ response, refining bottlenecks and speculative futures positioning.
Disclaimer: this is an illustrative educational model, not a forecast or financial advice. HormuzEye provides informational market analysis only. Oil markets are volatile; always do your own research.
Past Hormuz-related disruptions and their observed oil price effects: for context, not prediction.
Iran and Iraq attacked each other's oil tankers and export infrastructure in the Persian Gulf, disrupting Hormuz transit and raising war-risk premiums across the region.
Observed price effect: Brent rose from ~$28 to ~$40/bbl (+40%) over the period; insurance costs surged independently of spot prices.
Event 1 of 6Iraq's invasion of Kuwait removed ~4 Mb/d from global supply overnight. Hormuz traffic continued but markets priced a potential broader Gulf conflict.
Observed price effect: Brent doubled from ~$20 to ~$40 within weeks; briefly spiked above $40 on Hormuz closure fears.
Event 2 of 6Iran threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz amid tightening Western sanctions on its oil exports, prompting US naval deployments and EU embargo discussions.
Observed price effect: Brent added a ~$5-10/bbl geopolitical premium; peaked near $128/bbl in March 2012 on broader supply concerns.
Event 3 of 6Six tankers were damaged near Hormuz in May-June; in September, drone strikes hit Saudi Aramco's Abqaiq processing facility, removing ~5.7 Mb/d temporarily.
Observed price effect: Brent jumped ~15% on the Abqaiq strike (largest single-day move in decades); Hormuz tanker attacks added ~$2-4/bbl risk premium.
Event 4 of 6Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping forced tankers to reroute around Africa, increasing transit times and costs for Gulf exports, a stress test for alternative Hormuz bypass routes.
Observed price effect: Brent rose ~8% in Q1 2024 on rerouting costs; freight rates for Suez-Asia routes tripled, indirectly supporting Gulf export premiums.
Event 5 of 6Regional hostilities that began on 28 February severely disrupted Strait of Hormuz transit. A US-Iran memorandum of understanding signed on 17 June established a diplomatic framework, but tanker passage remains restricted and contested.
Observed price effect: Brent rose from roughly $65/bbl before the conflict to above $100/bbl at the peak; prices remain elevated while transit restrictions persist.
Event 6 of 6In-depth analysis on Hormuz risk and oil prices.
