Interactive tool
Editor-curated Strait of Hormuz risk level, live market context and an educational scenario simulator. Not a trading signal, but insight into oil price sensitivity.
Editorial risk assessment based on naval, insurance, diplomatic and supply factors. Updated when market conditions warrant.
Last assessed:
Risk raised from 79 to 81 after the 60-day US-Iran MoU expired without a final deal or extension. Trump demanded Iran raise the white flag of surrender, gave no war timeline, and threatened to bomb Oman if it gets in the way; Iran said it is shifting to a fully offensive posture and will launch a timely and precise attack to break the US naval blockade if diplomacy fails within weeks, while the army chief posted a $30,000 bounty on US soldiers. Hormuz remains largely blocked and shipping has dropped sharply.
US and allied naval escorts continue in the Gulf of Oman; Iranian fast-attack craft maintain a visible presence near the strait mouth.
Weight: 30%. Severe
War-risk premiums remain 3-5× pre-crisis levels for Gulf transits; several underwriters still require additional security declarations.
Weight: 25%. Severe
The 60-day US-Iran MoU expired on 17 August 2026 without a final deal or extension; rhetoric has shifted to surrender demands and offensive military threats.
Weight: 25%. Severe
IEA inventories dropped 69 million barrels in July and sit below 7.9 billion; US SPR is under 300 million barrels, the lowest since 1983. Pipeline reroutes (Petroline, ADCOP) still offset only ~2.6 Mb/d.
Weight: 20%. Severe
Model a disruption and see an estimated Brent price range based on live market data.
Saudi East-West Petroline + UAE ADCOP (~2.6 Mb/d combined offset)
Estimated Brent range
A substantial price increase is plausible: inventories draw down quickly and markets price in a prolonged disruption.
The model assumes ~20 Mb/d of crude and products via Hormuz (~20% of global liquids consumption, source: EIA) against a global consumption baseline of ~103 Mb/d (IEA).
Effective supply loss = blockage severity × 20 Mb/d − pipeline offset (max 2.6 Mb/d if active) − SPR dampening (0 / 1 / 2 Mb/d).
Price impact via demand elasticity |ε| = 0.20-0.45: %ΔP = (%Δsupply) / |ε|. Longer duration amplifies via inventory drawdown (multiplier 0.4× at 3 days to 1.6× at 90 days). Total effect capped at +150%.
Dollar figures are calculated from the current live Brent spot price. When data is unavailable, only the percentage range is shown.
Factors not modelled: currency effects, competition for alternative routes, OPEC+ response, refining bottlenecks and speculative futures positioning.
Disclaimer: this is an illustrative educational model, not a forecast or financial advice. HormuzEye provides informational market analysis only. Oil markets are volatile; always do your own research.
Past Hormuz-related disruptions and their observed oil price effects: for context, not prediction.
Iran and Iraq attacked each other's oil tankers and export infrastructure in the Persian Gulf, disrupting Hormuz transit and raising war-risk premiums across the region.
Observed price effect: Brent rose from ~$28 to ~$40/bbl (+40%) over the period; insurance costs surged independently of spot prices.
Event 1 of 6Iraq's invasion of Kuwait removed ~4 Mb/d from global supply overnight. Hormuz traffic continued but markets priced a potential broader Gulf conflict.
Observed price effect: Brent doubled from ~$20 to ~$40 within weeks; briefly spiked above $40 on Hormuz closure fears.
Event 2 of 6Iran threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz amid tightening Western sanctions on its oil exports, prompting US naval deployments and EU embargo discussions.
Observed price effect: Brent added a ~$5-10/bbl geopolitical premium; peaked near $128/bbl in March 2012 on broader supply concerns.
Event 3 of 6Six tankers were damaged near Hormuz in May-June; in September, drone strikes hit Saudi Aramco's Abqaiq processing facility, removing ~5.7 Mb/d temporarily.
Observed price effect: Brent jumped ~15% on the Abqaiq strike (largest single-day move in decades); Hormuz tanker attacks added ~$2-4/bbl risk premium.
Event 4 of 6Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping forced tankers to reroute around Africa, increasing transit times and costs for Gulf exports, a stress test for alternative Hormuz bypass routes.
Observed price effect: Brent rose ~8% in Q1 2024 on rerouting costs; freight rates for Suez-Asia routes tripled, indirectly supporting Gulf export premiums.
Event 5 of 6Regional hostilities that began on 28 February severely disrupted Strait of Hormuz transit. A US-Iran memorandum of understanding signed on 17 June established a diplomatic framework, but tanker passage remains restricted and contested.
Observed price effect: Brent rose from roughly $65/bbl before the conflict to above $100/bbl at the peak; prices remain elevated while transit restrictions persist.
Event 6 of 6In-depth analysis on Hormuz risk and oil prices.
