Status
Is the Strait of Hormuz open?
Restricted. The Strait of Hormuz is not operating normally. Transits remain far below the pre-crisis baseline; tanker attacks and the US naval blockade on Iran-linked shipping remain in force.
Last updated:
Risk summary
- Status
- Restricted
- Hormuz risk score
- 81/100
- Trend
- Slightly up (79 → 81)
Risk raised from 79 to 81 after the 60-day US-Iran MoU expired without a final deal or extension. Trump demanded Iran raise the white flag of surrender, gave no war timeline, and threatened to bomb Oman if it gets in the way; Iran said it is shifting to a fully offensive posture and will launch a timely and precise attack to break the US naval blockade if diplomacy fails within weeks, while the army chief posted a $30,000 bounty on US soldiers. Hormuz remains largely blocked and shipping has dropped sharply.
Key facts
- Recent daily transits
- ~12per day
- Pre-crisis baseline
- 130-140per day
Diplomatic snapshot
The 60-day US-Iran MoU expired on 17 August 2026 without a final deal or extension. Talks have given way to surrender demands and offensive military rhetoric; each escalation moves the risk premium faster than physical throughput.