Educational market analysis only. Not financial advice.

Six months into the crisis, pressure is spreading beyond the Strait itself — into alternative routes, inventories and refined fuels.

The Strait of Hormuz remains severely disrupted. But six months into the crisis, the bigger problem is becoming clear: the alternative routes, inventories and refining system that kept the global energy market functioning are also coming under pressure.

For months, the Strait of Hormuz has been at the centre of the global energy crisis. Before the current conflict, roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas passed through this narrow waterway between Iran and Oman.

Today, that traffic is only a fraction of normal levels.

On 17 September, preliminary Kpler data recorded just four commodity vessels passing through the Strait. The ten-day average was 16. Earlier in the week, daily crossings had fallen as low as three or four ships.

Some vessels are travelling with their AIS transponders switched off, meaning the real number of crossings is higher, but the direction is unmistakable: normal commercial shipping through Hormuz has still not returned. That is the same functional disruption HormuzEye mapped when shipping had already collapsed even though the Strait remained open.

The International Energy Agency describes the Middle East conflict as creating the largest oil-supply disruption in the history of the global oil market. It also warns that AIS data must be treated carefully because dark crossings, GPS interference and AIS spoofing make exact traffic volumes difficult to determine.

Oil is still moving — but at a price

The remarkable part of the story is that the global energy system has not stopped.

Saudi Arabia, the UAE and other Gulf producers have spent months finding ways around Hormuz. Saudi crude can travel west through the East-West pipeline to the Red Sea. The UAE has pipeline capacity toward Fujairah outside the Strait. Ship-to-ship transfers near Oman have also become increasingly important. Those bypasses are the same system examined in HormuzEye’s analysis of Saudi Aramco’s resilience during the Hormuz crisis.

These measures have prevented an even larger supply shock.

But they have not replaced normal Gulf exports.

The IEA estimates that Gulf oil exports were around 13 million barrels per day in August, almost half their pre-war level. More than 10 million barrels per day of Gulf production remained shut in during August.

The result can be seen in prices. Brent crude settled at $104.87 per barrel on 18 September, while US WTI finished at $100.30.

Yet crude oil prices tell only part of the story.

The real squeeze is moving downstream

The pressure is increasingly appearing in refined products such as diesel.

According to the IEA, exports of refined products and LPG from Gulf countries remain almost 60% below February levels. Gulf diesel and gasoil exports averaged only about 390,000 barrels per day in August, little more than one-quarter of their pre-war level.

US diesel prices exceeded the equivalent of $200 per barrel in early September. Refinery margins have reached exceptional levels because refiners outside the Gulf are struggling to compensate for the missing supply. That downstream stress is the same split HormuzEye described when diesel broke higher while crude stayed comparatively calm.

This matters because an economy does not run directly on Brent crude.

Trucks need diesel. Aircraft need jet fuel. Factories need feedstocks. Ships need bunker fuel. Farmers need fuel for machinery.

A barrel of crude sitting in the wrong location is not the same as usable energy arriving where consumers need it.

That is why the current crisis is gradually changing from a simple oil-supply problem into a logistics and refining problem.

The escape routes are becoming vulnerable

There is another worrying development.

The routes designed to bypass Hormuz are themselves coming under pressure.

Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline and its Red Sea export system became crucial after traffic through Hormuz collapsed. Disruptions around Yanbu have already forced Saudi Arabia to adjust export plans.

Aramco is now expected to move roughly 60 million barrels during September and October through Gulf exports and ship-to-ship transfers near Sohar in Oman.

At the same time, tensions around the Bab el-Mandeb Strait are increasing.

That waterway connects the Red Sea with the Gulf of Aden and is another critical route for energy moving between the Middle East, Europe and Asia.

On 17 September, 23 commodity vessels were recorded passing Bab el-Mandeb, compared with a ten-day average of 26.

The danger is obvious.

If Hormuz is restricted and the Red Sea route also becomes less reliable, the world does not simply lose one shipping route. It begins losing the alternatives that were keeping the system functioning.

The buffer is getting smaller

Perhaps the most important number is not the oil price at all.

It is 507 million barrels.

That is how much global observed oil inventories have fallen since February, according to the IEA. August alone saw another 95 million barrels disappear from stocks.

Inventories have acted as a shock absorber.

They allowed consumers to use oil that had already been produced while Middle Eastern production and shipping were disrupted.

But inventories cannot fall indefinitely.

And this is what makes September different from the beginning of the crisis.

The world has adapted remarkably well to an extraordinary disruption. New routes have been created. Tankers have changed behaviour. Producers outside the Gulf have increased supply. Strategic and commercial stocks have been used.

But each adaptation has limits.

Six months into the crisis, Hormuz remains severely constrained, Gulf production remains far below normal, refined-product shortages are becoming increasingly important and the routes designed to bypass the Strait are under growing pressure.

The energy drama is therefore entering a different phase.

The question is no longer simply whether the Strait of Hormuz can remain partially open.

The question is how long the global energy system can continue operating this far from normal.

Related desk work is collected in the HormuzEye analyses.

Sources

  • International Energy Agency — Oil Market Report, September 2026
  • International Energy Agency — Middle East Maritime Chokepoints Shipping Monitor
  • Reuters — Strait of Hormuz shipping traffic update, 18 September 2026
  • Reuters — Saudi Aramco export and ship-to-ship transfer update, 18 September 2026

Disclaimer: HormuzEye provides educational and informational market analysis only. This content is not financial advice, not investment advice, and not a buy or sell recommendation. Oil markets are volatile and geopolitical events can change quickly. Always do your own research and consult a qualified financial adviser before making investment decisions.